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Paving the way for EUR/USD downside with recent position squaring

01/18/2012 in Trading, Trading Forex

Recent upside move of EURO seems more a result of short covering rather than fresh position initiations ahead of upcoming heavy event risks – Portugal T-bill auction and German bond auction on Wednesday followed by French and Spanish bond auctions on Thursday.

Greek-private sector debt swap negotiations also set to resume today and involved parties are feeling the heat on both political and social fronts. ECB, EU, IMF, and IIF officials have stressed urgency for an agreement so as to avoid a disorderly Greek default and possibly ensuing systemic meltdown for Europe’s financial institutions. On the flip side, strikes and protests practically shut-down the city of Athens Tuesday as Greek citizens voiced their collective dissatisfaction towards already implemented and potential future austerity measures by its government.

Considering EUR shorts hit record levels last week, position squaring seems a more plausible driver of recent EUR/USD strength.

 

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$100/bbl Magnetic For Crude

01/16/2012 in Oil

Traders should look for the $100 mark for the West Texas Intermediate crude contract to act as a magnet, despite the 16-month low of the EUR/USD following Standard & Poor’s decision to downgrade France‘s credit rating.

Nymex floor-trading is shut Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday.

Traders should also acknowledge any deterioration in domestic and global oil balances that would pressure WTI prices to around $95. Nymex crude for February delivery is up 17 cents at $98.87/bbl on Globex.

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Market-Moving News. 13/01/2012

01/13/2012 in Trading Forex

€/$ lower.

Word seems to be leaking out that France and Austria will be downgraded one notch to AA+ by S&P. That would be less of a downgrade than expected. Germany reportedly will not be downgraded. Its logical that the decisions would be leaked beccuse governments are allerted in advance. We will see later.

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Euro Gives Bulls A Sterling Performance

01/13/2012 in Trading Forex

The euro enjoyed an across-the-board lift Thursday but a conspicuous flip-side loser of the day’s action was sterling, which economists say may be sick enough to deserve a shot of stimulus next month.

In the case of the EUR/GBP pair, Thursday’s enthusiasm for the euro, short-term or not, has recorded a convincing technical breakout on the weekly chart.

A euro move as high as GBP0.8505 may be unfolding. It most recently traded near GBP0.8368.

The euro has been bolstered by Thursday’s Spanish sale of an unexpectedly high EUR10billion in bonds below market rates, which perhaps implies a successful Italian sale Friday.

The euro broke out above the weekly resistance band, GBP0.8300-GBP0.8311, earlier.

Earlier the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee concluded its two-day policy meeting at 1200 GMT with a decision to leave the bank’s key interest rate at a record low 0.5% and the target for its asset purchase program at GBP275 billion. But observers noted that lower rates may yet come in February, given the U.K.’s flagging economy.

The MPC revived the central bank’s stimulus program in October 2011 with a decision to purchase an additional GBP75 billion of U.K. government bonds, or gilts, to take the total size of the program to GBP275 billion.

The euro’s momentum tailed off later in the day compared with the earlier rate of uptrend. That’s logical given that it’s crowding initial weekly resistance at GBP0.8380, which may be an interim top.

But a decisive higher move would be going for the GBP0.8425-GBP0.8505 target band.

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Magnitude 8.9 quake hits Japan

03/11/2011 in Trading Forex

Japan earthquake

Japan earthquake

As stated by Reuters:

Japan was hit by a 8.9 magnitude earthquake that triggered a 10-metre tsunami.

Japanese stock futures plunged nearly 5 percent.

The earthquake took place shortly before regular trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange ended, disrupting trade at the very end of the day. Phone lines were down across Tokyo, making it difficult to trade.

Before the quake struck, the Nikkei was down more than 1 percent and JGBs got a boost from the slide in Wall Street shares on Thursday.

The Bank of Japan vowed to ensure financial market stability and liquidity.

Osaka Nikkei stock index futures dropped 4.7 percent to as low as 9,950, the lowest since December 2010, before last trading at 10,010. The cash Nikkei ended down 1.7 percent at 10,254.

“The markets are taking it very badly, but I would wait for a clearer picture to assess how bad it is,” said Tim Condon, chief economist for Asia at ING in Singapore.

The yen dropped to session lows near 83.30 to the dollar before recovering back to 82.95, down only slightly from just before the quake

Traders noted that the yen surged after the 1995 Kobe earthquake due to Japanese repatriation of foreign assets.

Nikkei futures traded in Singapore were at 10,005 after having plunged as far as 9,950.

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GBP/USD in a rangebound consolidation

02/28/2011 in Trading Forex

GBP/USD

GBP/USD

Have not been here for a long long time… Meantime GBP/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Monday (2/28/2011) has continued its rangebound consolidation, roughly trading between key support around 1.6000 and key resistance around 1.6300

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